Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Some people take the Flex position a little too serious...

So im starting a work Fantasy football league this year that includes a 4 keepers. A sticking point was the "flex" position. I prefer 3 WRs and 2 RBs because it supports a balanced team structure for everyone. A friend of mine preferes 2 WRs/RBs and a WR/RB flex. He wanted to put it to a vote with the current 8 owners.

The final result was 4 for flex, 3 for 3 wrs, and 1 wussed out and wouldnt answer.

I Prepared some statistical analysis to support why I think leaving that as a flex position made the playing field a little bit unfair as a smart person would always want to start a 3rd RB over a 3rd WR. Heres my analysis:

Alright here goes:

My argument AGAINST a flex position for WR/RB is that you would always pick a RB over a WR every time. What I did was compute into fantasy points (not taking into account fumbles, and sorted by yardage not TDs for a fairer output) the top 5 WR season totals and the top 5 RB totals.

WRs:
1) Reggie Wayne: 1510 receiving yards, 10 TDs = 211 points
2) Randy Moss: 1493 rec yards, 23 TDs (I guarantee you wont see this again soon) = 287 points
3) Chad Johnson: 1440 rec yards, 8 TDs = 192 points
4) Larry Fitzgerald: 1409 rec yards, 10 TDs = 200 points
5) T.O.: 1355 rec yards, 15 TDs = 225 points

RBs:
1) LT: 1474 rush yards, 15 Rush TDs, 475 receiving yards, 3 rec TDs = 302 points (not even counting the 3 pass TDs and yards)
2) Adrian Peterson: 1341 Ru yards, 12 RuTds, 268 rec yards, 1 rec TD = 238 points
3) Brian Westbrook: 1333 Ru yards, 7 Ru TDs, 771 Rec yards, 5 rec TDs = 221 points
4) Willie Parker: 1316 Ru yards, 2 rutds, 164 rec yards, 0 rec tds = 159 points (RB by committee AND injured late in the season)
5) Jamal Lewis: 1304 RU yards, 9 RuTds, 248 rec yards, 2 rec TDs = 220 points

I don’t feel like going back to the 06 season, but when you take out Moss and TO's ridiculous TD scoring seasons last year, you can see the disparity in greater detail.

Theres simply not enough quality RBs to have a 3rd RB spot, in essence what you are doing because in very rare circumstances will you start a WR over a RB.

Id almost prefer a WR/TE flex, but then in the end it doesn’t make much sense, just make it a 3rd WR.


Apparently people love the flex position a little too much as I received these scathing responses:


Your analysis is flawed. You need to take into account many other factors such as bye weeks and injuries. Also a 3rd rb or 3rd wr are not going to be one of the top players so using the stats of the top 5 rbs and wrs in the league doesn't make sense. Like Josh said I think it is an opinion thing and not something that can broken down easily into numbers. There are far too many factors to take into account unless you have a degree in statistics Brian. Your previous email would point towards that not being the case.

How about using logic instead of statistics. If we use the flex position and you think an extra RB would benefit you most, draft an extra RB. IF you think a WR would be best, draft a WR. Disparity in numbers makes no argument. Let the GM draft and play who he wants. I'm for flex and played 3 WR all last year because of who I was able to get in the draft.

I wasnt trying to start a pissin contest as I have won leagues with 3 WRs and 3 RBs, that wasn't the point. My point was I wanted to make it a level playing field for all. I still didn't get a valid reason FOR having a flex, other than "i want it so we're doing it".

Its a 20 buck league, I couldnt imagine if this was for big bucks like my other leagues....

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