Monday, August 11, 2008

Variance or Doom Switch set to on?

Hoy had a good post today about variance. Sometimes no matter good you are playing, you just dont get the breaks, and yes, this happens online and off. He mentions how he got Pokerstarred last week in the Tao tourney, I also got pokerstarred.

8s vs 5s, 5s flops a set, after all-in pre. 10s vs 4s, 4s flop a set on an all heart board, no 10 of hearts in my hand. There was one particular fellow, KrazyKrip?, who seemed to only play hands that I called or raised. And everytime he beat me in those hands. Save for a few double ups along the way I wouldnt have lasted to the top 100 as I did. It doesnt help also when you are playing a HORSE tourney at the same time.

But to get to a point, online poker has a lot of "variance" we'll call it, and especially since I have been playing Razz exclusively, I see it a lot clearer. For example, playing 1/2 Razz I went for an $84 bankroll up to $237. As soon as I hit the 237 mark, I could not win a hand to save my life. Now, in all fairness, I did start playing looser, villains decided they couldnt fold ever, even to scary boards, and I called knowing I was beat but frustrated because I couldnt win a hand. After this shift, I feel to about $140. Then, like a light switch, I start hitting all my draws, villians cant lay bad hands down (even 10s and Js when I clearly have at least a 9) and when i complete or raise it doesnt mean im going to brick 4th street automatically. I got up to $307, after being all the way down to $140.

It started again Friday night after I hit my high mark of $307. It starts off slowly, as it always does. I drop between 5-10 bucks, then I get it up to a positive amount, sometimes even as high as $20 up. Then the frefall begins. Like tthe bear market, I cant win with the best of it, I start to panic and stop raising my good hands fearing it leads to a jinx. Then I brick 4th street anyway. I call my cards. J then a king. It comes out J then a K. Freefall begins.

I had to pull the gf over and show her what happens every single hand. A-2-3 brick brick. I had 2-3-4 and get a 3, then a 2, then a 3 on 6th. It got so bad I started counting Face cards dead so I could play a hand and be sure I wouldnt brick high.

I dropped 50 bucks Friday night. I came back Saturday with a new attitude, and focus on not playing stupid. I played for 20 minutes, I dropped 22 more.

Finally I signed on yesterday and after starting off dropping 5 bucks quickly, I must have done something to appease the RNG and I began to hit my draws without bricks. I ended up 30+ for the night.

Such is the life cycle of the Razz player...